6 players for 4 spots.

There is a big to-do on the sports pages about how Francona is going to distribute playing time to Ortiz, Youkilis, Martinez, Varitek and Lowell without hurting anyone's feelings and making them go Nomar 2004-style on the team. This is probably overrated as I think the guys like winning more than anything, but if Varitek made a stink about being pinch-hit for last year when he was absolutely awful, then I guess he might be a little hurt about being benched when he is actually having a good season. It's also still plausible that Lowell will need another DL stint, and as it went with having 7 starting pitchers, these things "tend to work themselves out."

The funny thing is that due to getting another first baseman for Adam LaRoche, they actually have to figure out spots for 6 players. But I guess no one counts a good-fielding player with a .350-370 OBP as a good player.

In any case, here are the main considerations:

• There are 58 games left, which leaves 58*4=232 starts to go around.
• Youkilis should be playing nearly every day, with a few days off to keep him rested.
• Lowell should be playing every day against lefties (he is crushing them to a .962 OPS this year) but his starts at third should be limited as much as possible, especially with Lester on the mound.
• Varitek should be starting every day against lefties (.920 OPS this year), but maybe not day games after night games, or too many in a row.
• Ortiz should rest against tough lefties, though he doesn't have a big split this year.
• Kotchman should get some playing time to spell Youk / Lowell, but his main usage should be late inning defense, pinch hitting and starting if more than one player is injured.

I would like to see:
Youkilis: 54 starts, 27 at first, 27 at third.
VMart: 50 starts, 23 at catcher, 27 at first, 2 at DH.
Papi: 48 starts, all at DH.
Varitek: 35 starts, all at catcher.
Lowell: 39 starts, 31 at 3rd, 8 at DH.
Kotchman: 4 starts, all at first.

I believe this works out.
Catcher: Varitek 35, Martinez 23, with Tek playing against lefties and Martinez catching any Wakefield starts.
First Base: Youkilis 27 games, Martinez 27 games, Kotchman 4 games.
Third Base: Lowell 31 games, Youkilis 27 games. If either gets hurt, Lowrie could fill in some.
DH: Papi 48 games, Lowell 8 games (against LHP), Youkilis 2 games.

The only guy who really loses in the playing time battle in this scenario, compared to what he is used to, is Varitek and maybe Lowell, but either could be available as pinch hitters. Hopefully Francona will be able to convince them to do what is good for the team.

Two more trades!

Surprising many, including me, that Red Sox actually did some wheeling and dealing at the trade deadline. It was my prediction that they would “stick with what they had” and we would be watching Theo Epstein on NESN talking about how they didn’t want to “mortgage the future” and they “like our guys” and sound clips of that sort. And then the Sox would miss the playoffs by two games as Jason Varitek continued to throw no one out (he is just 13 for 90 in throwing out runners, and 6 of those 13 are actually pitcher pickoffs!), Mike Lowell couldn’t move more than one step to the side, Brad Penny and Nick Green continued their transmogrification back into pumpkins, and John Smoltz and Tim Wakefield showed why it’s a bad idea to count on 800-year-old pitchers.

Amid many rumors, the Red Sox made two deals that improve the major league roster and come at a relatively minimal cost to the farm system or the organizational depth. Unfortunately, these moves fail to address what I consider the main weaknesses of the team, but they do represent a solid improvement for the stretch run, assuming the on-field management implements the players correctly.

Trade 1: Justin Masterson, Nick Hagadone and Bryan Price for Victor Martinez.

Victor Martinez is a very nice piece to add to the Red Sox. Not only is he a solid hitter, having put up an .850 OPS in every full year since 2004, but he can also catch and play first base. This is useful for the Sox, as Victor can essentially give Varitek, Lowell, Youkilis and David Ortiz more rest while Martinez will likely provide production on par with all of them. One concern with Martinez could be his throwing arm, but he’s likely an upgrade over Varitek, at least.

As for what the Sox gave up, it’s not a whole lot. I like Justin Masterson, but he simply hasn’t figured out how to get left-handers out and really only has two pitches, which limits his ceiling. Nick Hagadone has lots of potential, but is only in A ball and has already undergone Tommy John surgery. Similarly, Bryan Price is a few years away from contributing on the major league level, so at best these two players are lottery tickets. As the Red Sox have lots of pitching depth in the low minors, they probably won’t miss either Price or Hagadone very much, nor will they miss Masterson, who was pretty far down the bullpen depth chart.

Trade 2: Andy LaRoche for Casey Kotchman

There’s not a whole lot to say about this one. Kotchman will help the team more than LaRoche, is cheaper and is under control for longer. He’s young enough that there’s a chance he develops further, which LaRoche wasn’t going to do, and Kotchman is a better fielder which is important given Lowell’s poor fielding this year.

I have no problem with either of these trades; in fact, they are both good deals. The problem is that neither does anything to address the real problems the team has – starting pitching and shortstop. Jed Lowrie is a good player, but it seems that he can’t play every day yet and Nick Green is turning back into a pumpkin, especially defensively, which is particularly unacceptable. And 3/5s of the rotation is: a young player with questions about whether he can “put it together,” a fat journeyman who has a 5.93 ERA in July, which has put him about to the level I predicted he would pitch at, and a future Hall of Famer who can’t seem to pitch past the 5th inning with any success. This presents a problem not only in getting to the postseason but also in advancing if they do get there.

Given that both Jack Wilson and Cliff Lee (who is nearly as good as Halladay) were traded for relatively little (Philadelphia managed to keep their two favorite prospects, so it’s conceivable Lee could have been had without Buchholz), I am disappointed the Red Sox didn’t end up with them. Obviously no one can be sure that they didn’t pursue them seriously, but if the team fails to make the postseason because of a lack of pitching, don’t say I didn’t warn of it.

Cliff Lee vs. Halladay

There are some rumors circulation involving a deal between the Red Sox and Indians for both Cliff Lee and Victor Martinez. Most people seem to think Lee's Cy Young year last year was a fluke, because it was so unexpected, and possibly because he had a tough start to this year. But this is incorrect: if the asking price is similar to what the Blue Jays want for Halladay, I'd MUCH rather have Cliff Lee.

He had a tough start to the year but has picked it up greatly since and his numbers are pretty similar to last year. Since his third start of the year he has a 2.66 ERA, and has only gone less than 6 IP once in 20 starts (with 14 games of 7 innings or more), and only given up more than 3 runs twice in those 20 starts. He's also just a completely different pitcher since the beginning of 2008 and has the peripherals to back up his numbers (FIP: 2.92 in 2008, 3.14 this year).

He's younger than Halladay and significantly cheaper next year ($9 mil team option). Halladay has the advantage of showing he can get it done in the AL East, but over the last two years Lee has a 2.11 ERA in 47 IP against the Red Sox, Yankees and Rays, and his worst start during that time was against the Red Sox (5 R in 7 IP last year). Halladay has a 2.82 ERA in 165 2/3rds against those teams the last two years.

If this is a deal really on the table, I think you give up Buchholz, Bard and something else to get it done. Lee would be almost as good as Halladay for significantly less, and you'd have the benefit of not facing Buchholz 4-5 times a year for the next five years, if he does develop into what he can be.

Two Trades

The Red Sox made two trades today. The less-important one was trading Julio Lugo, who had already been designated for assignment, to St. Louis for OFer Chris Duncan.

Duncan was a very promising young hitter in the first two years of his career, 2006 and 2007. In 90 and then 127 games, he smacked 22 and 21 HR respectively and put up a .952, then an .834 OPS. Unfortunately, he suffered a herniated disc in his neck in 2008, which was originally diagnosed as a pinched nerve, and his production suffered. Interestingly, his BB% and K% remained steady, and it was mainly his LD% and HR/FB%s that dropped – in 2006 nearly 30% of his fly balls left the yard, while in 2008 and 2009 less than 10% did.

The trade is a good one for the Red Sox for two main reasons. First, it’s surprising that they got anything of even limited value for Lugo, who is the very definition of “sunk cost” as the Sox were prepared to simply eat the $13 million remaining on his contract. Second, Chris Duncan has some upside and won’t cost a major-league roster slot. Since he still has option years left, he can be stashed in the OF in Pawtucket until the Red Sox need a corner OFer, or until he starts mashing the ball enough to force his way back. This is a contrast to the other big trade acquisition of the day: Adam LaRoche.

Adam LaRoche was acquired for Argenis Diaz and Hunter Strickland. Strickland is a long ways off, and Diaz has questions about his defense, which was supposed to be his strong point, so the Red Sox didn’t give up too much. But what did they acquire? Proponents of the deal would say they got a solid-fielding first baseman with power who historically heats up in the second half, and this is perhaps true. But there are some questions.

Can a player really heat up in the second half every year? It doesn’t make any intuitive sense, really, and he didn’t do it his first year in the league. So, the Red Sox have to be hoping he does, since he has a .770 OPS so far this year, but it’s far from a guarantee.

Second, he will be switching leagues. There’s no question that the AL, and especially the AL East, is tougher than the NL Central. In LaRoche’s career he has a .745 OPS in interleague play (he’s always been in the NL). Players like Jason Bay who switch leagues and immediately perform well seem to be the exception rather than the rule. He’s also a pull hitter and not a good fit for Fenway.

Third, and most importantly, it’s my guess that the Red Sox won’t do anything else to acquire a corner infielder. This would be fine if Mike Lowell were healthy, as LaRoche could platoon with Lowell and also sub for Youkilis and Ortiz, giving everyone rest. But as stated in my last post, it seems increasingly likely to me that Lowell will need extensive DL time in the near future, at which point LaRoche and Youkilis will be the everyday starters. While it won’t dash the team’s hopes of contending, you’ll forgive me if I’m disappointed at that thought rather than having a certified masher like Nick Johnson in the lineup.

Grandpa Lowell

He is old. His stint on the DL did not help his baserunning or his fielding. He was caught at home last night and let at least one ball roll by him with absolutely no burst towards it.

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=3b&stats=fld&lg=all&qual=y&type=0&season=2009&month=0

Take a look. The only players worse in UZR/150 are Michael Young, who's playing third this year for the first time, and Chipper Jones, who has been lousy for years but can't be hid at DH. Young even made a nice play last night which shows he may be improving.

UZR can fluctuate and takes a large sample size to give a true picture, but when they are this bad already and confirm what you see with the naked eye, you can place more faith in them. It also follows that he would have a new level of defense after major surgery.

Calling Lowell a statue is putting it kindly. He is very very slow now, especially laterally, and doesn't make up for it with his bat. According to WARP he is just 0.4 wins above replacement.

Finding a third baseman who can move should be the team's top priority at the trade deadline.

The Red Sox in the Second Half.

The Red Sox have the best shot at making the playoffs in the American League, and once there they should have the pitching to go far. Like all teams, though, they have weaknesses, and there are issues that could come into play.

Let's examine these in turn.

What's going right?
-The pitching.
The starting staff, achored by Beckett, Lester and Wakefield, are all likely to be a good bit above average. Once Brad Penny can be traded, the last two slots would be Clay Buchholz and John Smoltz, who should also be expected to be above average. If anyone gets hurt, Michael Bowden, who threw two scoreless innings againt the Yankees and has a 3.13 ERA in Pawtucket, could step in. Other options include Justin Masterson and even Daisuke Matsuzaka if his rehab goes well.

That's not even the best part of the pitching staff. The Sox's bullpen is amazingly good. Even though they have struggled a bit in the last week or two, the pen has been great this year. In 265 IP they have a 3.33 ERA, 1.29 WHIP and .689 OPS allowed -- and that's with a number of lousy innings from Javier Lopez and Hunter Jones. With Daniel Bard's emergence, the team is 6 relievers strong, which means that even if a couple guys are having rough stretches, they can still hold leads regularly.

Oh, and their AAA closer has a 1.79 ERA and 39 Ks in 40 innings.

-The schedule.
The Red Sox have a favorable schedule for the remaining 71 games of the season. They don't have to travel further west than Texas, and their remaining games against the top teams in the AL West are all at home. The season could come down to how the Sox do against Toronto and Baltimore as they have 23 games remaining against those two teams. The benefit of playing them later is that the teams could have "given up" by then, and traded their veteran assets (most these games are after the July 31 trade deadline) while giving younger players a shot.

The Sox also have a decent, though not ideal, number of off-days, and no really tough trips. The toughest stretches are likely to be two 13-day stretches with just one off day between, so it's especially important that the bench is functioning well and starters can go deep into games during that time.

What's wrong?
-The defense.
The Red Sox have the worst defensive efficiency in the majors, though this is hurt somewhat by Fenway having fewer catchable balls than most parks. This is bad, and makes the exceptional performance of their pitching staff more impressive. Here's a chart to give you an idea of where the trouble lies (sorted by UZR).


Simply put, balls hit to the left side of the field aren't being turned into outs with any regularity. Jason Bay and Mike Lowell are statuesque, and Nick Green has been inconsistent. When you add in the fact that former standouts Jacoby Ellsbury and Dustin Pedroia are having off years with the glove so far, it adds up. The numbers are dragged down a bit by Julio Lugo's terrible performance, but it's still an issue. While Jed Lowrie's return should help, it would not surprise me, and I think it would be a good move, for the Sox to add a good glove infielder even if it cost a treasured prospect or "depth" bullpen guy.


What's "alright"?
The offense. Many sky-is-falling fans think that since the Red Sox aren't going to win because they aren't bashing everyone into Bolivian, as Mike Tyson would say. But with an upgrade defensively and continued excellence from the pitching staff the team's run prevention will be so strong that they won't have to worry. Plus they have the 4th-best offense in the AL and 5th-best in the majors anyway.

Really Bud?

"That's fine. They're entitled to their opinion," Selig said Wednesday at a meeting of the Baseball Writers' Association of America. "This is one sport where I can't even fathom that anybody could think that."

Bud Selig, denying claims that MLB owners colluded against free agents, from the ESPN story.

You sure about that Bud? Because, I mean, it happened before.

Halladay

Roy Halladay may be on the block. There are a surprising number of Red Sox fans on various e-mail lists and message boards I read who do not want to trade Clay Buchholz for him.

This is ridiculous.

Roy Halladay has been a top 5 pitcher in baseball since 2002. There's a very good chance he will continue to do so for the next five years, much less the one and a half remaining on his contract.

There's no debate that Buchholz projects well, but there is a huge and understated difference between AAA and MLB as we saw with Buchholz himself last year, and with countless other young prospects. Clay is also smaller than Halladay and not through the "injury nexus." Clay may "get it" and become a good MLB pitcher, but even then his results could range from Lincecum to Jeff Weaver, while Halladay is a very good bet to be a top 5 MLB pitcher this and next year. And there is evidence that he may never develop the work ethic necessary to "get it" in MLB. There's a significant chance his value will never be higher than right now.

The money is really not a big issue. The Red Sox have a smaller payroll than they did 5 years ago and are making more money than they did then. They have had plenty of kids coming through the system, and look to have plenty more even if they trade a couple. Having cheap young players filling positions allows a team to go out and fill holes with more expensive guys -- or to get the very top guys in the league. If you keep overrating your prospects, you end up like the Angels, who held onto Brandon Wood, Casey Kotchman, Howie Kendrick, etc. too long and struggled in the playoffs as their young guys' weaknesses were exposed in MLB. Even if they acquire Halladay, the Sox' payroll will go up to about $135 million this year, and then they have ~$13 million coming off the books for 2010 in Penny, Smoltz and Saito, as well as Bay, depending on what happens with him. They were willing to offer Teixeira a very large contract, so you have to think they will pay what it takes for quality.

Finally, if the Jays really are willing to trade Doc within the division, the Sox trading for him would have the added benefit of keeping him away from the Yankees, which is significant. They have better prospects than NY (depending on what the Jays like) and should be able to beat their offer.

Thoughts on this article by Dave Zirin.

http://www.thenation.com/doc/20090525/zirin

Most salient quotes:

"We should always remember that former Texas Rangers owner George W. Bush made steroid persecution a recurring theme of his time in office, as long as owners were spared the spotlight. The hypocrisy should shame owners toward contrition--but they will happily crack some golden eggs, as long as it means that the goose that laid them lives...We are supposed to tsk-tsk at players who are supposed to "just say no" to their addictions to fitness and monster stats, when their success at the park is our addiction as well. We also have yet to truly take owners to task for their addictions to public money and send them to detox."

Zirin's point is a good one, but I think it is misplaced in the case of Manny. Manny broke the rules, isn't appealing his suspension, and will sit out 50 games. It doesn't seem he was erroneously accused or that he had a good reason to use the substance he was suspended for, or that he doesn't think he was treated unfairly at all by MLB. He has been ripped in the press, but this has always been the case and much of it was due to his own actions. Lots of people don't like him, and while I think it's very unprofessional for Tim McCarver to spend 5 minutes during which he is supposed to be announcing the Red Sox - Rays game ranting about how Manny has disrespected everything he stands for and insulted his mother, that's his prerogative.

Where I think MLB and Bud Selig erred is in their treatment of things that happened in the past. It wouldn't be that difficult for baseball to say something like, "Many people made mistakes during the 'steroid era,' but we now have the strictest policy of any major sport and we are planning to set a good example for young athletes and move on with the cleanest game we can possibly have." Instead, Selig stood and watched glumly as Barry Bonds tied Aaron's record, then met with his steroids adviser when Bonds broke it. He commissioned a 409-page report investigating steroids in the past that managed to raise more questions than it answered due to Mitchell's lack of power. The game's most well-known player, already unpopular outside of New York, was outed somehow and left to hang for a supposedly anonymous test that he had failed over 5 years previous. This only echoed the Congressional testimony given by many different stars in 2005, again expecting these players to admit to what they had been presumed to have done. Mark McGwire had the right attitude when he said, "I'm not here to talk about the past. I'm here to be positive about the subject." But baseball wasn't.

In analyzing baseball history, we learn to appreciate the context in which games were played and numbers accumulated. Bob Gibson's 1.12 ERA in 1968, while a great accomplishment, is less impressive than Pedro's 1.74 ERA in 2000, due to context. The effect of these decisions by Selig and the MLB administration was largely as Zirin describes -- the blame was placed on the players (and mainly on a few stars, even though PED use was widespread among all types of players) with very few fingers pointed to the context in which they played. This context was one that encouraged home runs and had routinely turned a blind eye to PED abuse since the "greenie era" until Bonds started, in someone's opinion, desecrating the record books while still refusing to talk to media and be a good spokesman for the game.

But by focusing on Manny, whose suspension has played out just how the policy is supposed to work going forward, Zirin's point is slightly diminished.

I was hating on Lugo before it was cool.

Story here

Francona: "He got himself put in situations where plays were hard for him to make."

Like on the field?

Also, I like that his nickname is apparently "Lugie."

Free George Kottaras!

I know Varitek has a home run and has generally hit the ball hard, but a day game after a night game is the kind of game Kottaras should be starting, even if he's going to catch Wakefield tomorrow. Give it a shot Tito.

I think these numbers are pretty telling.

Announced attendance at team USA's elimination game last night vs. the Netherlands (starring Derek Jeter, Roy Oswalt, Kevin Youkilis, Jimmy Rollins, David Wright and others): 11,059.
Tickets were available on ebay for $20-30 each.

Announced attendance for the Red Sox vs. Orioles game earlier that afternoon (with such players as Oscar Salazar, Brian Bass, and Gil Velazquez getting starts): 7,915

The Baltimore Orioles of "Fenway South"

I’m worried about the Orioles. There, I said it.

The AL East has been the toughest division in MLB over the last few years. How tough? Let’s take a look at each division’s record against non-divisional opponents for a good idea:

Team	vs. Central W-L	vs. West W-L	vs. InterleagueW-L	Total W-L
Tampa	20-18	22-12	12-6	54-36
Boston	24-10	22-16	11-7	57-33
New York	21-19	18-14	10-8	49-41
Toronto	24-12	17-19	8-10	49-41
Baltimore	20-18	15-18	11-7	46-43
Total	109-77	94-79	52-38	255-194

Every team in the East had a winning record against the rest of the league, and in aggregate the division had a .568 winning percentage outside the East. That’s equivalent to 92 wins over a 162 game season.

This record is even more impressive when you consider that the Orioles were out of contention from about July 1st, when they fell to 8 games back, on. This doesn’t necessarily mean that the players stopped trying, but the team certainly didn’t make any moves to improve their record in the second half last year, and tried out various prospects and backups since they weren’t in “win-now” mode (Radhames Liz comes to mind). But the team is looking much better this year and in the near future.

The Orioles have a core of young stars that is on par with any team in Nick Markakis, Matt Wieters and Adam Jones. While Brian Roberts’ new contract is probably an overpay, he still has a shot to help the next time they are in contention, and he plays a premium defensive position like Jones and Wieters do. With these four players they have the basis for a tremendous lineup, considering the remaining spots are relatively easy to fill. Oh, and they have $27 million coming off the books at the end of this year as Aubrey Huff's, Melvin Mora's, Danys Baez's and Jamie Walker's contracts all expire.

Let's take a look at the Orioles' potential 2010 lineup with a few moves I think they should make:

C Matt Wieters
1B Low-level Talent (Daric Barton? Dan Johnson? FA Adam LaRoche? Teixeira would have looked really nice here -- it's a shame Angelos seemingly didn't pursue him harder)
2B Brian Roberts
SS Marco Scutaro (Scuatro is a FA and provides solid defense and acceptable offense, and he'll be cheap, allowing the team to focus resources on pitching)
3B Hank Blalock / Bill Rowell (one of these could move to 1B or DH. Again, the corners are easiest to fill)
LF Luke Scott
CF Adam Jones
RF Nick Markakis
DH Carlos Delgado (Still provides plenty of pop)

SP John Lackey (Will be expensive, but Orioles can afford it. To make a run they'll need an ace like Lackey)
SP Jeremy Guthrie
SP Brett Myers (should be a workhorse for relatively cheap)
SP Koji Uehara
SP Rich Hill / Brian Matusz (Matusz may not be quite ready, but is the future here)

With a bit of luck in the pen, the 2010 Orioles could be a similar success story to the 2008 Rays. If they can get any return this year for their impending FAs, that will only help.

The World Baseball "Classic"

"A lot of guys aren't playing in the WBC because there's just no good time for it. It's a situation where you have guys who should probably be playing and you've guys who don't even have jobs who are trying to win jobs. It's both ends of the spectrum. For me, in the future, if I'm locked in with a long-term deal and I know I have some security with a team, then that's a different story. I'm not going to jeopardize anything for my ballclub or myself."
-Jonathan Papelbon

This quote to me makes a lot of sense and illustrates a big problem with the WBC: There's no good time for it that will be convenient enough for players to risk their careers, and their team's season. The best time I can think of is in the middle of the season, but there would have to be a break of at least a week, and more likely two weeks, which creates more problems: Is it fair to give non-WBC players a long break to rest and get healthy? Do you do away with the All-Star game? Would you still have as many players skipping the WBC in favor of simply resting for two weeks?

If you didn't include fewer teams, the tournament would be in a time-crunch as well, which brings me to my second main WBC issue: It's not that great of a competition. This is partly because many of the players don't seem to take it seriously, nor do they have enough reason to, but also because the nature of baseball makes it difficult for the winner a one-game elimination tournament to be the best team -- there's just too much luck involved. When so much of the outcome of one game depends on the performance of the starting pitcher, even the best teams don't win much more than half the time.

This is distinctly different from soccer's World Cup, which is successful because it's a good competition. The players are passionate, often to the detriment of their club teams, and it's rare that a great team will lose to a mediocre one due to the nature of soccer. Since eleven players are involved, and necessary, to win, soccer is better-suited to a single-elimination tournament.

So we have a conundrum. Even if you get every player motivated enough to compete at their top level, and find a time when the players are well-prepared for the tournament, you could still have a bad competition if one team's top two starting pitchers have a great two weeks. And if you extend the competition to ensure more fairness, it becomes long and takes away from the MLB (and NPB) seasons. To be fair, the competition issue probably bothers me more than most fans -- like those that were okay with the 83-win Cardinals winning the World Series a few years back -- but it is an annoyance.

All this said, I'll watch the upcoming WBC, and I'm excited for most of the games. But it's hard to get too into it when half the players aren't themselves.