Halladay

Roy Halladay may be on the block. There are a surprising number of Red Sox fans on various e-mail lists and message boards I read who do not want to trade Clay Buchholz for him.

This is ridiculous.

Roy Halladay has been a top 5 pitcher in baseball since 2002. There's a very good chance he will continue to do so for the next five years, much less the one and a half remaining on his contract.

There's no debate that Buchholz projects well, but there is a huge and understated difference between AAA and MLB as we saw with Buchholz himself last year, and with countless other young prospects. Clay is also smaller than Halladay and not through the "injury nexus." Clay may "get it" and become a good MLB pitcher, but even then his results could range from Lincecum to Jeff Weaver, while Halladay is a very good bet to be a top 5 MLB pitcher this and next year. And there is evidence that he may never develop the work ethic necessary to "get it" in MLB. There's a significant chance his value will never be higher than right now.

The money is really not a big issue. The Red Sox have a smaller payroll than they did 5 years ago and are making more money than they did then. They have had plenty of kids coming through the system, and look to have plenty more even if they trade a couple. Having cheap young players filling positions allows a team to go out and fill holes with more expensive guys -- or to get the very top guys in the league. If you keep overrating your prospects, you end up like the Angels, who held onto Brandon Wood, Casey Kotchman, Howie Kendrick, etc. too long and struggled in the playoffs as their young guys' weaknesses were exposed in MLB. Even if they acquire Halladay, the Sox' payroll will go up to about $135 million this year, and then they have ~$13 million coming off the books for 2010 in Penny, Smoltz and Saito, as well as Bay, depending on what happens with him. They were willing to offer Teixeira a very large contract, so you have to think they will pay what it takes for quality.

Finally, if the Jays really are willing to trade Doc within the division, the Sox trading for him would have the added benefit of keeping him away from the Yankees, which is significant. They have better prospects than NY (depending on what the Jays like) and should be able to beat their offer.