The Baltimore Orioles of "Fenway South"

I’m worried about the Orioles. There, I said it.

The AL East has been the toughest division in MLB over the last few years. How tough? Let’s take a look at each division’s record against non-divisional opponents for a good idea:

Team	vs. Central W-L	vs. West W-L	vs. InterleagueW-L	Total W-L
Tampa	20-18	22-12	12-6	54-36
Boston	24-10	22-16	11-7	57-33
New York	21-19	18-14	10-8	49-41
Toronto	24-12	17-19	8-10	49-41
Baltimore	20-18	15-18	11-7	46-43
Total	109-77	94-79	52-38	255-194

Every team in the East had a winning record against the rest of the league, and in aggregate the division had a .568 winning percentage outside the East. That’s equivalent to 92 wins over a 162 game season.

This record is even more impressive when you consider that the Orioles were out of contention from about July 1st, when they fell to 8 games back, on. This doesn’t necessarily mean that the players stopped trying, but the team certainly didn’t make any moves to improve their record in the second half last year, and tried out various prospects and backups since they weren’t in “win-now” mode (Radhames Liz comes to mind). But the team is looking much better this year and in the near future.

The Orioles have a core of young stars that is on par with any team in Nick Markakis, Matt Wieters and Adam Jones. While Brian Roberts’ new contract is probably an overpay, he still has a shot to help the next time they are in contention, and he plays a premium defensive position like Jones and Wieters do. With these four players they have the basis for a tremendous lineup, considering the remaining spots are relatively easy to fill. Oh, and they have $27 million coming off the books at the end of this year as Aubrey Huff's, Melvin Mora's, Danys Baez's and Jamie Walker's contracts all expire.

Let's take a look at the Orioles' potential 2010 lineup with a few moves I think they should make:

C Matt Wieters
1B Low-level Talent (Daric Barton? Dan Johnson? FA Adam LaRoche? Teixeira would have looked really nice here -- it's a shame Angelos seemingly didn't pursue him harder)
2B Brian Roberts
SS Marco Scutaro (Scuatro is a FA and provides solid defense and acceptable offense, and he'll be cheap, allowing the team to focus resources on pitching)
3B Hank Blalock / Bill Rowell (one of these could move to 1B or DH. Again, the corners are easiest to fill)
LF Luke Scott
CF Adam Jones
RF Nick Markakis
DH Carlos Delgado (Still provides plenty of pop)

SP John Lackey (Will be expensive, but Orioles can afford it. To make a run they'll need an ace like Lackey)
SP Jeremy Guthrie
SP Brett Myers (should be a workhorse for relatively cheap)
SP Koji Uehara
SP Rich Hill / Brian Matusz (Matusz may not be quite ready, but is the future here)

With a bit of luck in the pen, the 2010 Orioles could be a similar success story to the 2008 Rays. If they can get any return this year for their impending FAs, that will only help.