2007 Season Predictions Revisited

Sorry I haven't updated in a year. What do you want. Pay me to do this and I'll put in a little more effort (Looking at you, GoogleAds).

A couple posts back I made my season predictions. They once again turned out to be pretty accurate. Overall I got 6 of the 8 playoff teams, including the eventual winner. Let's get right into it.

AL East (Predicted record in parentheses)
Boston 96-66 (94-68)
New York 94-68 (92-70)
Toronto Blue Jays 83-79 (80 - 82)
Baltimore Orioles 69-93 (72 - 90)
Tampa Bay Devil Rays 66-96 (75 - 87)

Tough to complain about that. The Red Sox probably would have been closer to my prediction had they not coasted for much of September, and once you get below 70 wins I think it's fair to just call your team "bad" and move on, as teams try different things when out of the race (playing rookies, trading vets who are performing, and so on) as when they are in it. I did think the Rays would show a bit of improvement, but that will come.

AL Central
Cleveland Indians 96-66 (88 - 74)
Detroit Tigers 88-74 (86 - 76)
Minnesota Twins 79-83 (91 - 71)
Chicago White Sox 72-90 (76 - 86)
Kansas City Royals 69-93 (69 - 93)

OH YEAH! WHO'S THE MAN?! WHO PREDICTED THE KANSAS CITY ROYALS' FINISH DOWN TO THE WIN!

That's right, me. Pay no attention to how far off I was on the Indians or (ugh) the Twins. See, I'll maintain that the Twins had the talent to win the division, but were mismanaged and misbuilt. At least I predicted the Tigers wouldn't be that good.

AL West
Anaheim Angels 88 - 74 (94-68)
Seattle Mariners 79 - 83 (88-74)
Oakland Athletics 87 - 75 (76-86)
Texas Rangers 84 - 78 (75-87)

Well. I actually predicted the Mariners' Pythagorean record exactly right; they just had a great bullpen and some luck and outperformed it. Of course, as you'll see later, I was close to the Diamondbacks' real record when they far outperformed their Pythag, so I guess I can't use that excuse. But I will point it out.

I'll mark this one down to Oakland's injuries and my never really being able to accurately tell how Texas will do. I guess they traded Mark Teixeira, so that hurt. And their pitching, ugh. What's wrong with the water down there? Makes every team of theirs crazy.

NL East
Philadelphia Phillies 89-37 (88 - 74)
New York Mets 88-74 (85 - 77)
Atlanta Braves 84-78 (79 - 83)
Florida Marlins 71-91 (73 - 89)
Washington Nationals 73-89 (68 - 94)

In retrospect, I'm surprised I was this down on the Mets, but maybe that opinion is tainted by their acquisition of Santana -- I don't see them finishing second again this year, for sure. The rest is within five games, so I'm pretty happy with my predictions in this division. Though I was almost wrong for picking Philly first.

NL Central
Chicago Cubs 85-77 (87 - 75)
Milwaukee Brewers 83-79 (80 - 82)
St. Louis Cardinals 78-84 (79 - 83)
Houston Astros 73-89 (75 - 87)
Cincinnati Reds 72-90 (79 - 83)
Pittsburgh Pirates 68-94 (72 - 90)

This division was actually worse than I predicted. Ugh. I thought it would be more of a 5-way race for the irrelevant second place behind the Cubs, but it was more spread...but still ugly. Notable here is the Reds' poor performance, mainly due to Homer Bailey not helping and Bronson Arroyo not helping as much, and Pittsburgh being worse than I expected due to just about no one being any good. More of the same this year, though I think Milwaukee and Chicago could pull away a little bit.

NL West
Arizona Diamondbacks 90-72 (89 - 73)
Colorado Rockies 90-73 (73 - 89)
San Diego Padres 89-74 (86 - 76)
Los Angeles Dodgers 85-77 (85 - 77)
San Francisco Giants 71 - 91 (71-91)

Thanks a lot, Colorado. Not only do you knock off the rest of the NL before collapsing to the Red Sox, eliminating teams who were actually good and had a chance to make a good World Series, but you go ahead and ruin my otherwise-perfect NL West prediction. But, if anyone can say they had the Rockies pegged for more than 80 wins, I'll bet they're lying.

More to come.