Season predictions out of the bag

So my new goal is to finish up the season previews by the end of April. We'll see how I do at that. Anyway, I wanted to get this out there before it got too far into the season:

American League East
Boston Red Sox 94 - 68
New York Yankees 92 - 70*
Toronto Blue Jays 80 - 82
Tampa Bay Devil Rays 75 - 87
Baltimore Orioles 72 - 90

Yes, I'm a Red Sox fan, but I just think the Sox have a more solid team. The Yankees' pitching staff is at best "alright," and I think it will be below average. Pettitte should be okay, Igawa should be fine, and Wang should be okay (though I doubt he'll match last year), but none are going to contend for the Cy Young and all have the potential to collapse. Their offense will of course be great, but they will all be a year older and I don't see anyone likely to improve on last year's numbers, except perhaps Melky Cabrera who will be pressed for playing time. Jeter and Cano specifically are candidates for regression. Combined with the end of their rotation being very questionable (Carl Pavano and Jeff Karstens) and I think 92 wins and the wild card is about right. The Sox aren't much better and it will certainly be a dogfight, but I think their pitching gives them the edge. I'll add that if Philip Hughes is pitching in the majors before May 15, they are the favorites in the division.

As for the rest of the division, it's not as good as all that. I already discussed the Blue Jays, and while the D-Rays have some great young hitters, they only have one good pitcher. In fact, their opening day loss against the Yankees is indicative of what we should expect from this team--good, exciting hitters, decent starting pitching, and a terrible bullpen.

American League Central
Minnesota Twins 91 - 71
Cleveland Indians 88 - 74
Detroit Tigers 86 - 76
Chicago White Sox 76 - 86
Kansas City Royals 69 - 93

I really wanted to pick Cleveland to win the division. Their Pythagorean record has been great the last two years, but they've underperformed it each year, last year by a lot. This year, their pitching looks worse than last year and only Andy Marte really excites me to improve their offense over last year. Try as the Twins might (by putting Ponson and Silva in the rotation over younger, better options), they have simply too much talent in Mauer, Santana and Morneau, and a solid supporting cast and great bullpen, to pick against.

Everyone's darling Detroit just isn't that great and will struggle in a tough division. Jeremy Bonderman should take a step forward, but I don't expect much form Nate Robertson or Kenny Rogers and I think Justin Verlander will regress some. On the offensive side of things, they are good, but not great, and that's not good enough.

The White Sox are my favorite team to root against, besides New York, because I can't stand the acclaim that Ozzie Guillen gets for being a "smallball" manager when his sacrifice bunts and steals don't play to the strengths of the team, specifically hitting home runs. Batting Scott Podsednik (2006 OBP: .330) and Darren Erstad (2005 OBP: .325) one-two in the order in front of Jim Thome, Jermaine Dye and Paul Konerko is particularly stupid. But more to the point, their pitching is declining and their offense is getting old, and Jermaine Dye can't repeat his career year.

What can you say about the Royals? Alex Gordon and Zack Greinke will help them avoid 95 losses, but it will be a while before they can compete.

American League West
Anaheim Angels 88 - 74
Oakland Athletics 87 - 75
Texas Rangers 84 - 78
Seattle Mariners 79 - 83

I discussed the A's in pretty good depth already. I think the Angels' pitching and young offense is enough to get them one game better than Oakland, especially if Casey Kotchman is healthy all year. Looking at the other two teams in the divison, I actually wouldn't be surprised if they were worse than this. But I think Felix Hernandez will have a great year, and the Rangers' hitters will rebound from some disappointing years, particularly Mark Teixeira and Brad Wilkerson (don't ask me about Hank Blalock -- I'm just as confused as everyone else).

National League East
Philadelphia Phillies 88 - 74
New York Mets 85 - 77
Atlanta Braves 79 - 83
Florida Marlins 73 - 89
Washington Nationals 68 - 94

The Mets have a great offense, but their pitching is in trouble. Glavine and Hernandez are old. The rest are very questionable. If Milledge has a great year they could beat my projection, but I think he's a year away.

The Phillies remind me of the Twins in a way; a lot of their team is tied up in a few young stars. But their rotation is more evenly-distributed (I like Freddy Garcia to have a good year) and they have some nicer secondary stars beyond Howard and Utley. It's possible Utley is further ahead of the field at second base than Mauer is ahead of the field at catcher.

I'm just not that impressed with the Braves anymore. They don't have Mazzone and their offense has big holes. They're going with relative unknowns on the right side of the infield. I don't see this team as much better or worse than last year.

The Marlins are exciting and I could see them closer to .500 than I have them, especially if Uggla keeps hitting and Ramirez gets better. I could also see the Nationals as worse than I have them, but I have them pretty low so I don't think I can go lower.

National League Central
Chicago Cubs 87 - 75
Milwaukee Brewers 80 - 82
Cincinnati Reds 79 - 83
St. Louis Cardinals 79 - 83
Houston Astros 75 - 87
Pittsburgh Pirates 72 - 90

This division stinks and really bothers me. Seriously, I think it's a bit of an outrage that a team can go 83-79 and win the World Series just because it was in a bad division in a bad league and because it has four great players. But the Cardinals will fall if Pujols, Edmonds, Rolen and / or Carpenter miss significant time, which I think is likely.

I think I like the Cubs the most, but that's not saying much. In a weak division, they did just enough in the offseason to get ahead. Firing Baker is a big addition by subtraction. Well, I guess his contract was simply not reviewed. Semantics. In other news, him and Rick Sutcliffe in the booth on opening day was the worst broadcasting team I've ever heard (Yes, worse than Bryant Gumbel and Sick Dick Vermeil on the NFL Network last fall).

My hope is that the Brewers continue to get better, Sheets stays healthy, Hall adapts to center, Fielder breaks out and Ryan Braun figures out how to throw a baseball to first. Otherwise I don't see a team approaching 90 wins in this division in the near future.

National League West
Arizona Diamondbacks 89 - 73
San Diego Padres 86 - 76*
Los Angeles Dodgers 85 - 77
Colorado Rockies 73 - 89
San Francisco Giants 71 - 91

Man, the NL stinks. Am I really the most excited about the Arizona Diamondbacks out of the whole league? Yeah. They have a great pitcher in Webb, and solid young players at almost every position. They look to be strong up the middle, which I think is a "traditional" team-building strategy that is underrated by sabermetricians, and should have the pieces in place to contend already. They're not quite as good as Baseball Prospectus seems to think, but they are the best in the National League. Wow, I guess that's pretty good.

Oh, and I do think the Giants will totally collapse. They're about 900 years old combined and Matt Cain can't do everything. If they didn't have Bonds I'd pick them as the worst team in the majors.