Season preview: Oakland A's

Welcome to my season preview. Hopefully I can get this all done in the next week, but if not it might spill over into the season. Let's get right to it.

Oakland A's

Projected starters (per MLB.com):
C Jason Kendall
1B Dan Johnson
2B Mark Ellis
3B Eric Chavez
SS Bobby Crosby
OF Mark Kotsay
OF Nick Swisher
OF Milton Bradley
DH Mike Piazza
Bench:
OF Shannon Stewart
IF Marco Scutaro
OF Bobby Kielty
C Adam Melhuse

Rotation:
Rich Harden
Dan Haren
Esteban Loaiza
Joe Blanton
Joe Kennedy / Brad Halsey

Bullpen:
Justin Duchscherer
Kiko Calero
Alan Embree
Chad Gaudin
Jay Witasick

Closer:
Huston Street

The A's have transformed in the last few years from a power-hitting, OBP-oriented team to one more centered on pitching and defense. At least, that's what the media will have you believe. In reality, the shape of the A's has more to do with a few of their players than it does with any sort of philosophy. Of course, they embody the Moneyball philosophy, so Billy Beane and his crew look for players who are undervalued by other teams to help fill their squad; guys like John Jaha, Scott Hatteberg and Matt Stairs. But it was Jason Giambi and the "Big Three" of Tim Hudson, Mark Mulder and Barry Zito that really carried the team throughout their highly successful seasons in the early 00s. A few wise trades and FA signings have kept the team competitive since those players became too expensive to keep, but the team is drastically different, and it's hardly Beane's fault. How often does a team get lucky with an MVP and three top pitchers all coming up near the same time?

Unfortunately, the team's potentially solid core is also quite injury-prone. Kotsay is already hurt until June, leaving Bobby Kielty or Shannon Stewart to fill in. the middle infield of Bobby Crosby and Mark Ellis is questionable, leaving Marco Scutaro likely to get a large number of at-bats. The team added Mike Piazza for cheap, potentially a good pickup, but the aging player isn't going to replace the production Frank Thomas gave from the DH spot last year, and will in my opinion need some luck to meet league-average at the position. In fact, with OPS sinks like Jason Kendall, Stewart, perhaps Scutaro, and at best league-average production from Dan Johnson (if he rebounds), Crosby and Ellis, the team will need big years from Eric Chavez, Nick Swisher and Milton Bradley to put many runs on the board. Barring a breakthrough season from one or two of the offense, the A's will need to prevent a lot of runs to make the playoffs.

That brings us to the pitching staff. The A's have two of the top pitchers in the league in dan Haren and Rich Harden. Everyone knows about Harden, but Haren really doesn't get enough respect in my opinion. Though his ERA increased a bit last year, he improved his strikeout and walk rates and was very durable (something that cannot be said for Harden). He should really be the anchor of the rotation.

Of course, for the A's to play into October, they will need a healthy season from Rich Harden. If he nears 200 innings, they have to be the favorite in a weak division. Unfortunately, that doesn't seem likely.

Still, the A's pitching has depth and should be their strength. Esteban Loaiza pitched well down the stretch last year and should be decent. Joe Blanton will be fine, and whatever combination of Brad Halsey, Joe Kennedy, and anyone else they use for the remainder of their starts will be solid. The bullpen is deep and strong with Alan Embree joining Huston Street, Kiko Calero, Justin Duchscherer as the high-leverage pitchers. Jay Witasick returns from an injury and could also provide quality innings.

With the exception of Nick Swisher the A's defense should once again be good, and will help the pitching staff out. Still, they will need at least 150 innings from Rich Harden and a few of their hitters to step up to hold off the Angels.