Sox Offseason Additions Part 1: Brad Penny

Let's take a look at Brad Penny. Penny missed time last year with injuries, but was given an incentive-laden contract by the Sox to be part of the rotation mix. At first glance, he's a former All-Star pitcher with great upside, so why not? Right? Well, maybe not so much.

History:
Bradley Wayne Penny was drafted by the Diamondbacks out of high school in the 5th round of the 1996 draft. He was great in the minors, with a particularly impressive age-20 season in the high-A California league in which he struck out 207 batters and walked just 37 in 165 innings. He struggled at age 21 somewhat and was traded mid-season to Florida for Matt Mantei. The next season he joined their rotation where he became a mainstay. While not dominant in Florida he was a solid pitcher, at least until injuries reared their head. In 2002 he only pitched 24 games due to elbow trouble (after pitching 205 innings at age 23 the previous year), and in 2004 he missed a similar amount of time with biceps tendinitis and was traded midseason to the Dodgers.

He continued to be a league-average innings-eater for the Dodgers until 2007, when he had what appeared to be a breakout season. He ended the season with a 3.03 ERA (a 151 ERA+) in 208 innings while making 33 starts. Digging a little deeper, though, the sparkling ERA was a mirage. Penny allowed a .295 BABIP, about 20-30 points better than his career average. He only struck out 135 and walked 78 in those 208 innings, by far his worst BB:K ratio. Perhaps the most flukey stat was his 4.7 HR/FB%, when his and league average numbers are usually around 10%. That means he should have allowed about twice as many home runs as he did, and combined with his increased walks, he got away with allowing too many baserunners.

That takes us to last year. As he has shown after any high-work season, Penny again got hurt, but this time it was more major. He was highly ineffective when he could pitch and didn't pitch after June due to a problematic throwing shoulder. He didn't have surgery, as it was just "sore" enough for him to miss more than half the season. I also found this interesting (from the L.A. Times):

Penny’s relationship with Dodgers management became severely strained this year. Penny, who won 16 games in 2006 and 2007, was upset that the Dodgers wouldn’t offer him a contract extension in the spring or at least guarantee him that they would pick up his option for next year. He said uncertainty about his future drove him to pitch through shoulder pain, resulting in further injury.

Several club officials believed that Penny wasn’t seriously hurt and blamed his decline on his work ethic, which they described as poor.

It will be interesting to see whether signing with the Red Sox improves his work ethic and allows him to pitch without problems, or whether his pitching through pain last year leads to any problems this year, or any other number of questions.

Scouting:
I haven't watch Penny pitch much, but here's what I can figure out. Penny mainly throws a fastball which averages around 92-93 MPH. He also has a curve and a sinker, and a changeup he throws rarely. At his best he gives up a lot of grounders and keeps the ball in the park.

Contract:
The signing hasn't been anounced officially, but Penny is believed to be guaranteed $5 million on a one-year deal and can make up to $3 million more through incentives, likely based on innings pitched.

Role on Red Sox:
Right now, Penny seems to be in line for one of the final two rotation slots along with Tim Wakefield. Whether he's fourth or fifth doesn't matter as the Sox don't skip their fifth starter, preferring to give each pitcher extra rest if the team has days off. If and When John Smoltz is ready to join the rotation or if Michael Bowden or Clay Buchholz's performances earn them a promotion, Penny or Wakefield could be dropped or perhaps traded.

Predicted performance:
CHONE: 131 IP, 71 K, 51 BB, 4.81 ERA
Marcels (in LA): 127 IP, 87 K, 48 BB, 4.25 ERA
ZIPS (also LA): 149 IP, 94 K, 50 BB, 4.47 ERA

If you adjust Marcels and ZIPS for the league difference, all three projections come out about the same. I don't think pitching in the AL East is going to be good for Penny, so I would predict an ERA around 5.

Conclusion:
Penny is a damaged pitcher with previous arm injuries in his elbow, biceps and most recently his shoulder. He has questions about his work ethic and even at his best doesn't generate the strikeouts or high numbers of ground balls the Red Sox should look for given their division, good defensive infield and home stadium. He's never pitched in a division as difficult as the AL East or a city with the voracious media of Boston. Much was made of having to pitch Paul Byrd or Tim Wakefield in a playoff game during last year's ALCS and how this put the Red Sox at a disadvantage, but Penny doesn't answer these complaints. The best the Sox can hope for is that Penny stays healthy all year and eats innings at a league-average ERA, and by June Smoltz or Buchholz is ready to take over as 4th starter, pushing Penny to 5th starter and removing him from the postseason picture. The worst case is that he is still injured and loses some April games before going on the shelf for the year. That's too little upside and too likely a downside to guarantee $5 million to.