Sox Offseason Additions Part 2: John Smoltz

History: John Smoltz was signed out of high school by the Detroit Tigers in the 22nd round of the 1985 draft. He was famously traded to the Braves for Doyle Alexander and went on to have a fantastic 20-year career as both a starter and reliever. I mean, if you don't know Smoltz's story, you haven't been paying attention to baseball, so stop reading now.

Particularly notable from the Sox' perspective are two things. First, he has an extra season's worth of innings in the postseason, and they would rank as perhaps his best season when taken together:
40 G, 27 GS, 15 W, 4 L, 4 SV
207 IP, 2.65 ERA, 194 K, 67 BB.

This is about half a run better than his career ERA, and as the Braves have been consistently in the postseason there is little selection bias inherent. When you take into account that postseason competition is inherently better, it's even more amazing. Regardless of the existence of "clutch," Smoltz is on the short list for "greatest postseason pitchers ever."

Second, he has a significant injury history. He began missing time due to elbow problems in 1997, and in 200 missed the season with Tommy John surgery. After returning, he struggled in five starts and was moved to the bullpen, where it was thought his reduced stamina would be less of a concern. The Braves' trainers were right, as he would go on to amass 154 saves in the next 3 years, including 55 saves in 2002 and a 1.12 ERA in 2003. As a reliever, his injuries were minimized, though he did have a few DL trips due to tendinitis in his surgically repaired elbow.

More recently, he has experienced numerous shoulder problems, but has managed to pitch through most of them, only visiting the DL twice. Last year, however, he was unable to continue and opted for surgery, missing the season from June on. His shoulder had lots of issues, some of which probably can't be fixed, even by Dr. Andrews.

Scouting:
Smoltz throws a four-seam fastball at around 92 MPH (previous to his surgery), a two-seamer at 89, a slider, a changeup and a curve. 70% of the time he throws either the four-seamer or the slider. All bets are off regarding his velocity post-surgery, but Smoltz is obviously a smart pitcher who knows how to get batters out. Even when his shoulder was hanging by a thread last year, he struck out 36 in 28 innings and allowed just 25 hits.

Contract:
Smoltz signed a one-year deal with the Sox for a guaranteed $5.5 million and can make around $5 million more in incentives. This is comparable to the Brad Penny deal, and while Penny's health is a little less of a question, he won't be John Smoltz even if he was 100% healthy.

Role on Red Sox:
Smoltz is likely out until May at the earliest and more likely June. It's tough to say what he will be able to do when he returns, but one would imagine the Sox would want him as a starter. With Lester, Beckett, Dice-K, Penny, and Wakefield, plus Clay Buchholz, he may be more useful in the bullpen, but the red Sox have many options there too and it's unlikely Smoltz will really want to pitch middle relief. Given Penny and Wakefield's mediocrity and Buchholz's issues, Smoltz will probably be needed as soon as possible in the Red Sox' rotation.

Predicted Performance:
It's pretty clear what Smoltz will do if he has his normal velocity. Look for an ERA around 3.50 in the AL East and also look for him to be on a relatively strict pitch count, limiting his innings. If the Red Sox make the postseason, they'll let him loose.

Conclusion:
As the Sox missed out on the big-ticket free agents this offseason, they had money to spend. Smoltz is their one high-risk free agent that is likeliest to provide good return. Even if he can only pitch 100 innings, it's fairly certain they will be good innings, and with their deep staff Smoltz was a solid pickup.