Sox Offseason Additions Part 4: Takashi Saito

Oh hey, another low-money, high-risk, coming-off-injury free agent signing for the Sox this year. Let's check him out.

History:
Saito was one of the better pitchers in the Japanese league for 13 years. He began as a starting pitcher, and while he had some injury trouble, he was a 4-time all-star and solid pitcher. When Kaz Sasaki left to join MLB in 2000, Saito became the team's closer and was dominant. Still, he wasn't expected to do much when the Dodgers signed him to a minor league deal in 2006.

What happened was another story. Saito was one of the best closers in the NL in 2006 and 07, saving 63 games over those two years with a minuscule ERA and 185 strikeouts in 142 2/3 innings. He missed a lot of time in 2008 due to his elbow injury, but was effective when able to pitch.

Scouting:
Saito relies on a fastball which sits around 92-93 mph. He also has a good slider which he throws about 30% of the time, and a change-of-pace curveball he throws less than ten percent of the time. He has good control and avoids the home run -- only allowing 8 in 190 MLB innings.

His injury last year is troubling. Reports vary, from "hanging by a thread" to "can maybe pitch through it." He certainly didn't have his best stuff when he returned in September, allowing a .370 OBP and 3 runs in six innings -- and then another two runs with no outs in his only postseason appearance. Since he didn't have surgery, his health is a big question mark.

Contract:
Saito's contract gurantees him $1.5 million, and he will receive another $1 million if he spends any time on the active roster. Other incentives could make the contract worth as much as $7.5 million.

Role on Red Sox:
If healthy, Saito will be in the bullpen mix along with Okajima, DelCarmen, Masterson, Ramon Ramirez and Javier Lopez. Jonathan Papelbon has the closer slot nailed down, so barring injury Saito won't get many chances to close.

Predicted Performance:
The projection systems released thus far have Saito's K rate going down and his ERA rising to the 3.00 range, but I don't see this happening if he is reasonably healthy. They also predict around 50 innings pitched for him, which I don't agree with either. An ERA in the 2.5 range with 50 or so innings pitched is probably the best-case scenario. Worst case is, well, 0 innings pitched and $1.5 million sunk cost.

Conclusion:
Like Baldelli and Smoltz, this signing comes down to how well the Red Sox medical staff does its job. If they can keep Saito reasonably healthy, and if he doesn't have more damage to his elbow than they think, then he will be a great weapon out of the bullpen. The Sox' pen should be a strength even without him, though.