The Red Sox in the Second Half.

The Red Sox have the best shot at making the playoffs in the American League, and once there they should have the pitching to go far. Like all teams, though, they have weaknesses, and there are issues that could come into play.

Let's examine these in turn.

What's going right?
-The pitching.
The starting staff, achored by Beckett, Lester and Wakefield, are all likely to be a good bit above average. Once Brad Penny can be traded, the last two slots would be Clay Buchholz and John Smoltz, who should also be expected to be above average. If anyone gets hurt, Michael Bowden, who threw two scoreless innings againt the Yankees and has a 3.13 ERA in Pawtucket, could step in. Other options include Justin Masterson and even Daisuke Matsuzaka if his rehab goes well.

That's not even the best part of the pitching staff. The Sox's bullpen is amazingly good. Even though they have struggled a bit in the last week or two, the pen has been great this year. In 265 IP they have a 3.33 ERA, 1.29 WHIP and .689 OPS allowed -- and that's with a number of lousy innings from Javier Lopez and Hunter Jones. With Daniel Bard's emergence, the team is 6 relievers strong, which means that even if a couple guys are having rough stretches, they can still hold leads regularly.

Oh, and their AAA closer has a 1.79 ERA and 39 Ks in 40 innings.

-The schedule.
The Red Sox have a favorable schedule for the remaining 71 games of the season. They don't have to travel further west than Texas, and their remaining games against the top teams in the AL West are all at home. The season could come down to how the Sox do against Toronto and Baltimore as they have 23 games remaining against those two teams. The benefit of playing them later is that the teams could have "given up" by then, and traded their veteran assets (most these games are after the July 31 trade deadline) while giving younger players a shot.

The Sox also have a decent, though not ideal, number of off-days, and no really tough trips. The toughest stretches are likely to be two 13-day stretches with just one off day between, so it's especially important that the bench is functioning well and starters can go deep into games during that time.

What's wrong?
-The defense.
The Red Sox have the worst defensive efficiency in the majors, though this is hurt somewhat by Fenway having fewer catchable balls than most parks. This is bad, and makes the exceptional performance of their pitching staff more impressive. Here's a chart to give you an idea of where the trouble lies (sorted by UZR).


Simply put, balls hit to the left side of the field aren't being turned into outs with any regularity. Jason Bay and Mike Lowell are statuesque, and Nick Green has been inconsistent. When you add in the fact that former standouts Jacoby Ellsbury and Dustin Pedroia are having off years with the glove so far, it adds up. The numbers are dragged down a bit by Julio Lugo's terrible performance, but it's still an issue. While Jed Lowrie's return should help, it would not surprise me, and I think it would be a good move, for the Sox to add a good glove infielder even if it cost a treasured prospect or "depth" bullpen guy.


What's "alright"?
The offense. Many sky-is-falling fans think that since the Red Sox aren't going to win because they aren't bashing everyone into Bolivian, as Mike Tyson would say. But with an upgrade defensively and continued excellence from the pitching staff the team's run prevention will be so strong that they won't have to worry. Plus they have the 4th-best offense in the AL and 5th-best in the majors anyway.