Two Trades

The Red Sox made two trades today. The less-important one was trading Julio Lugo, who had already been designated for assignment, to St. Louis for OFer Chris Duncan.

Duncan was a very promising young hitter in the first two years of his career, 2006 and 2007. In 90 and then 127 games, he smacked 22 and 21 HR respectively and put up a .952, then an .834 OPS. Unfortunately, he suffered a herniated disc in his neck in 2008, which was originally diagnosed as a pinched nerve, and his production suffered. Interestingly, his BB% and K% remained steady, and it was mainly his LD% and HR/FB%s that dropped – in 2006 nearly 30% of his fly balls left the yard, while in 2008 and 2009 less than 10% did.

The trade is a good one for the Red Sox for two main reasons. First, it’s surprising that they got anything of even limited value for Lugo, who is the very definition of “sunk cost” as the Sox were prepared to simply eat the $13 million remaining on his contract. Second, Chris Duncan has some upside and won’t cost a major-league roster slot. Since he still has option years left, he can be stashed in the OF in Pawtucket until the Red Sox need a corner OFer, or until he starts mashing the ball enough to force his way back. This is a contrast to the other big trade acquisition of the day: Adam LaRoche.

Adam LaRoche was acquired for Argenis Diaz and Hunter Strickland. Strickland is a long ways off, and Diaz has questions about his defense, which was supposed to be his strong point, so the Red Sox didn’t give up too much. But what did they acquire? Proponents of the deal would say they got a solid-fielding first baseman with power who historically heats up in the second half, and this is perhaps true. But there are some questions.

Can a player really heat up in the second half every year? It doesn’t make any intuitive sense, really, and he didn’t do it his first year in the league. So, the Red Sox have to be hoping he does, since he has a .770 OPS so far this year, but it’s far from a guarantee.

Second, he will be switching leagues. There’s no question that the AL, and especially the AL East, is tougher than the NL Central. In LaRoche’s career he has a .745 OPS in interleague play (he’s always been in the NL). Players like Jason Bay who switch leagues and immediately perform well seem to be the exception rather than the rule. He’s also a pull hitter and not a good fit for Fenway.

Third, and most importantly, it’s my guess that the Red Sox won’t do anything else to acquire a corner infielder. This would be fine if Mike Lowell were healthy, as LaRoche could platoon with Lowell and also sub for Youkilis and Ortiz, giving everyone rest. But as stated in my last post, it seems increasingly likely to me that Lowell will need extensive DL time in the near future, at which point LaRoche and Youkilis will be the everyday starters. While it won’t dash the team’s hopes of contending, you’ll forgive me if I’m disappointed at that thought rather than having a certified masher like Nick Johnson in the lineup.