Cliff Lee vs. Halladay

There are some rumors circulation involving a deal between the Red Sox and Indians for both Cliff Lee and Victor Martinez. Most people seem to think Lee's Cy Young year last year was a fluke, because it was so unexpected, and possibly because he had a tough start to this year. But this is incorrect: if the asking price is similar to what the Blue Jays want for Halladay, I'd MUCH rather have Cliff Lee.

He had a tough start to the year but has picked it up greatly since and his numbers are pretty similar to last year. Since his third start of the year he has a 2.66 ERA, and has only gone less than 6 IP once in 20 starts (with 14 games of 7 innings or more), and only given up more than 3 runs twice in those 20 starts. He's also just a completely different pitcher since the beginning of 2008 and has the peripherals to back up his numbers (FIP: 2.92 in 2008, 3.14 this year).

He's younger than Halladay and significantly cheaper next year ($9 mil team option). Halladay has the advantage of showing he can get it done in the AL East, but over the last two years Lee has a 2.11 ERA in 47 IP against the Red Sox, Yankees and Rays, and his worst start during that time was against the Red Sox (5 R in 7 IP last year). Halladay has a 2.82 ERA in 165 2/3rds against those teams the last two years.

If this is a deal really on the table, I think you give up Buchholz, Bard and something else to get it done. Lee would be almost as good as Halladay for significantly less, and you'd have the benefit of not facing Buchholz 4-5 times a year for the next five years, if he does develop into what he can be.